NFC Championship – Packers @ Bears

This weekend’s NFL Conference Championship games have the potential to be very competitive. They also have the potential to be blowouts. Today we’ll focus on the NFC.

First, the Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers. It is the NFL’s oldest rivalry. They split their two Black-n-Blue Division games this year, each team winning at home. The combined score of the two games was 27-23 in favor of the Pack. OK, those are the simple facts on this game, the first time these two have met in the playoffs since 1941.

This analysis uses only objective information as it takes into account their game results ONLY. It does not take into account injuries, stats, etc. According to SportsMeasures’ NFL rankings of ability the Packers have a measure of 71.87 with an error of +/-6.14. What this means is that the Packers have an estimated ability range of 65.73 to 78.01. More on that in a minute.

The Bears have a measure of 62.75 with an error of +/-6.49 for a range of 56.26 to 69.24. So, the Bears and Packers have a relatively small range of overlap – 65.73 to 69.24 (that is the bottom of the Packers range to the top of the Bears range). What this means in terms of game result is that the Bears have to be pretty good and the Packers have to be kind of bad for the Bears to win. If both teams play well or poorly, edge Packers. However, almost no matter how well the Bears play, if the Packers play well, the Packers will win. I don’t think the Bears have it in them to be better than the Packers when the Packers play well. The Packers have a larger margin for error than the Bears.

The Bears can be BAD, as witnessed in all their losses. Not once did the Bears play well in these five games; the defense did play well against Green Bay though.

Green Bay, on the other hand, lost six games: Bears, Washington, Miami, Atlanta, Detroit and New England. Not all of those were ugly losses where they played poorly. The Bears, Atlanta and NE are all good teams and Green Bay probably played well in two of those losses (Atlanta and New England). The losses to Washington, Miami and Detroit were very bad losses though. Green Bay had a propensity to be dominant, too. Their wins against Buffalo, @Jets, Dallas, @Minnesota, SF, Giants and Bears were by a total of 208 to 53. That’s seven of their ten wins. Their other wins were over Philadelphia, Detroit and Minnesota by a combined 83 to 70.

The Bears had four (of 11) such wins. They were against Carolina, Miami and Minnesota (2) by a combined 106 to 33. The Bears’ seven other wins were by a total of 181 to 150.

Even though I’m a Bears fan, I’m predicting a Packer victory – 24 – 13. It could be worse and I hope I’m wrong. I was wrong about New Orleans and New England, two other two-part city names; perhaps the trend will continue.

I think this analysis provides a better understanding of their measures which is exactly upon what their measures are based: how they fared against their competition.

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