Projected NCAA men’s basketball tournament

To create my projected NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament field of 65 teams, the conference leader as of today was each conference’s “champion” and received the automatic bid (New Mexico has a .5 game lead over BYU but, BYU has a better measure. There may be other instances where the conference leader is not the best team according to the measures produced by SportsMeasures.com). The at-large bids were then given to the next 34 teams in measure order. No other consideration was given: not to win/loss record, conference standing, RPI, strength of schedule, etc.

It is the contention of SportsMeasures.com that the “play-in” game should be played between the last two teams to receive at-large bids. The two worst teams, Jackson St and Lehigh, at least won their conference and should be rewarded as such and allowed to play as the #16 seed. In this field of 65, Mississippi and UAB would have to play in the play-in game. You can see the last four in at the bottom of the list. The first four out of the tournament would be Arizona St., Minnesota, Dayton, and San Diego St. ESPN has St. Mary’s as the last team in meaning they are no better than about the 45th best team in the country. SportsMeasures.com has St. Mary’s as the #18 team in the land and a solid #5 seed. ESPN would have you believe that they are barely a #10 or #11 seed. This is all because of the subjective nature of their analysis being used to determine who should be in and who should be out. The field of 65 should look more like this list than anything ESPN or anyone else is producing.

It should be reiterated that all analyses done for this site are completely scientific, reproducable, robust, and will withstand the scrutiny anyone wishes to bring. If you were to produce your own objective analysis, it would look exactly like this.

Conference Leaders as of February 27, 2010 (automatic bids)

1.     America East,     Stony Brook (#171, 51.52)
2.     ACC,     Duke (#4, 74.32)
3.     Atlantic Sun,     Jacksonville (#174, 51.32)
4.     A-10,     Temple (#26, 66.73)
5.     Big East,     Syracuse (#2, 75.60)
6.     Big 10,     Purdue (#5, 71.68)
7.     Big South,     Coastal Carolina (#122, 55.00)
8.     Big 12,     Kansas (#1, 78.83)
9.     Big Sky,     Weber St (#101, 56.91)
10.     Big West,     UCSB (#135, 53.97)
11.     Colonial Athletic,     ODU (#53, 62.99)
12.     Conference USA,     UTEP (#36, 64.95)
13.     Horizon,     Butler (#27, 66.73)
14.     Ivy,     Cornell (#52, 63.07
15.     Metro Atlantic,     Siena (#62, 61.63)
16.     Midwestern,     Kent St. (#88, 58.38)
17.     Mid-Eastern,     Morgan St. (#152, 52.48)
18.     Missouri Valley,     Northern Iowa (#31, 65.82)
19.     Northeast,     Robert Morris (#187, 50.18)
20.     Mountain West,     New Mexico (#11, 68.53)
21.     Ohio Valley,     Murray St. (#60, 62.08)
22.     Pac-10,     California (#33, 65.38)
23.     Patriot League,     Lehigh (#206, 48.67)
24.     SEC,     Kentucky (#3, 75.35)
25.     Southern,     Wofford (#102, 56.91)
26.     Southland,     Sam Houston St. (#108, 55.94)
27.     Southwestern,     Jackson St. (#259, 44.04)
28.     Summit,     Oakland ((#118, 55.34)
29.     Sun Belt,     North Texas (#168, 51.81)
30.     West Coast,      Gonzaga (#39, 64.16)
31.     Western Athletic,      Utah St. (#49, 63.56)

At-large bids for the next best 34 teams base solely on the measure

32. Villanova (#6, 71.63)
33. Kansas St. (#7, 71.02)
34. West Virginia (#8, 70.72)
35. Texas (#9, 70.36)
36. Brigham Young (#10, 70.29)
37. Baylor (#12, 68.12)
38. Pittsburgh (#13, 67.99)
39. Missouri (#14, 67.76)
40. Maryland (#15, 67.69)
41. Wisconsin (#16, 67.66)
42. Georgetown (#17, 67.59)
43. St. Mary’s (#18, 67.53)
44. Vanderbilt (#19, 67.50)
45. Tennessee (#20, 67.44)
46. Ohio St. (#21, 67.34)
47. Xavier (#22, 66.96)
48. Texas A&M (#23, 66.87)
49. Louisville (#24, 66.76)
50. Clemson (#25, 66.74)
51. Michigan St. (#28, 66.35)
52. Florida St. (#29, 66.03)
53. Virginia Tech (#30, 65.88)
54. Marquette (#32, 65.71)
55. Wake Forest (#34, 65.27)
56. Georgia Tech (#35, 65.26)
57. Oklahoma St (#37, 64.72)
58. UNLV (#38, 64.51)
59. Florida (#40, 64.06)
60. Washington (#41, 63.97)
61. Richmond (#42, 63.94)
62. Memphis (#43, 63.94)
63. Connecticut (#44, 63.94)
64. Mississippi (#45, 63.77)
65. Alabama-Birmingham (#46, 63.72)

Leave a Reply